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Homes for Sale in the Dana Estates Neighborhood of Concord

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Homeowners Out-Earned Job Holders in 2021

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Home appreciation outpaced income in much of the US.

One of the sharpest and best reads around is from Jay Voorhees @ JVM Lending. Earlier this week he wrote this:

Owning A House Was More Profitable Than Having A Job Last Year

A few weeks ago, I blogged about the reluctance of sellers to list their properties in the face of so much uncertainty.

But – there is another reason sellers are hanging on to their homes according to various macro pundits.

And that reason is massive appreciation.

According to this Motley Fool column, homeowners made more from appreciation last year on average than the average U.S. worker made from his job.

https://www.jvmlending.com/blog/why-higher-rates-could-save-the-housing-market/

According to the Motley Fool post, the average home appreciated by $52,667 in 2021. Meanwhile the average salary in 2021 was $50,000.

Here in Concord, California the average price from December of 2020 to 2021 increased from $754,553 to $884,716 according to the Contra Costa Association of Realtors®. That increase of 17.3% amounts to a $130,000 growth in net worth. This is above the median household income of $92,706 from the U.S. Census Bureau.

This is one of the reasons that owning your own high quality real estate (like a home in Dana Estates) is one of the best investments you can make.

If you are curious about the value of your home, you can use this link to get your home value.

Peter Maclennan
Real Estate Broker | Maclennan Investment Group, Inc.
DRE #01801793
925-385-8798

There Won’t Be a Wave of Foreclosures in the Housing Market

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There Won’t Be a Wave of Foreclosures in the Housing Market | MyKCM

When mortgage forbearance plans were first announced and the pandemic surged through the country in early 2020, many homeowners were allowed to pause their mortgage payments. Some analysts were concerned that once the forbearance program ended, the housing market would experience a wave of foreclosures like what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago.

Here’s a look at why that isn’t the case.

1. There Are Fewer Homeowners in Trouble This Time

After the last housing crash, over nine million households lost their homes to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they gave it back to the bank. Many believed millions of homeowners would face the same fate again this time.

However, today’s data shows that most homeowners exited their forbearance plan either fully caught up on payments or with a plan from the bank that restructured their loan in a way that allowed them to start making payments again. The latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) studies how people exited the forbearance program from June 2020 to November 2021.

Here are those findings:

38.6% left the program paid in full
  • 19.9% made their monthly payments during the forbearance period
  • 11.8% made up all past-due payments
  • 6.9% paid off the loan in full
44% negotiated work-out repayment plans
  • 29.1% received a loan deferral
  • 14.1% received a loan modification
  • 0.8% arranged a different repayment plan
0.6% sold as a short sale or did a deed-in-lieu
16.8% left the program still in trouble and without a loss mitigation plan in place

2. Those Left in the Program Can Still Negotiate a Repayment Plan

As of last Friday, the total number of mortgages still in forbearance stood at 890,000. Those who remain in forbearance still have the chance to work out a suitable plan with the servicing company that represents their lender. And the servicing companies are under pressure to do just that by both federal and state agencies.

Rick Sharga, Executive Vice President at RealtyTrac, says in a recent tweet:

“The [Consumer Financial Protection Bureau] and state [Attorneys General] look like they’re adopting a ‘zero tolerance’ approach to mortgage servicing enforcement. Likely that this will limit #foreclosure activity for a good part of 2022, while servicers explore all possible loss [mitigation] options.”

For more information, read the warning issued by the Attorney General of New York State.

3. Most Homeowners Have More Than Enough Equity To Sell Their Homes

For those who can’t negotiate a solution and the 16.8% who left the forbearance program without a work-out, many will have enough equity to sell their homes and leave the closing with cash instead of facing foreclosures.

Due to rapidly rising home prices over the last two years, the average homeowner has gained record amounts of equity in their home. As Frank Martell, President & CEO of CoreLogic, explains:

“Not only have equity gains helped homeowners more seamlessly transition out of forbearance and avoid a distressed sale, but they’ve also enabled many to continue building their wealth.”

4. There Have Been Far Fewer Foreclosures Over the Last Two Years

One of the seldom-reported benefits of the forbearance program was that it allowed households experiencing financial difficulties prior to the pandemic to enter the program. It gave those homeowners an extra two years to get their finances in order and work out a plan with their lender. That prevented over 400,000 foreclosures that normally would have come to the market had the new forbearance program not been available. Otherwise, the real estate market would have had to absorb those foreclosures. Here’s a graph depicting this data:

There Won’t Be a Wave of Foreclosures in the Housing Market | MyKCM

5. The Current Market Can Easily Absorb Over a Million New Listings

When foreclosures hit the market in 2008, they added to the oversupply of houses that were already for sale. That resulted in over a nine-month supply of listings, and anything over a six-month supply can cause prices to depreciate.

It’s exactly the opposite today. The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reveals:

“Total housing inventory at the end of November amounted to 1.11 million units, down 9.8% from October and down 13.3% from one year ago (1.28 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.1-month supply at the current sales pace, a decline from both the prior month and from one year ago.”

A balanced market would have approximately a six-month supply of inventory. At 2.1 months, the market is severely understocked. Even if one million homes enter the market, there still won’t be enough inventory to meet the current demand.

Bottom Line

The end of the forbearance plan will not cause any upheaval in the housing market. Sharga puts it best:

“The fact that foreclosure starts declined despite hundreds of thousands of borrowers exiting the CARES Act mortgage forbearance program over the last few months is very encouraging. It suggests that the ‘forbearance equals foreclosure’ narrative was incorrect. . . .”

Originally published by Peter Maclennan at MyKCM

Diablo Valley Real Estate Market Update – Video

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Questions about where the real estate market is as of December 15, 2020? Here are a few answers in the video below. (Hint: read the sign.)

Having a knowledgeable and experienced real estate broker on your side helps protect your interests and ensure you make the best possible decisions. We are dedicated to keeping on top of the real estate market and keeping you informed of changes. You can rest easily knowing you made a well-informed decision based on experience and insight into the Concord California market.

To reach Peter Maclennan please call 925.385.8798 or email at peter@maclennaninvestments.com.

What is contributing to the shortage in single-family home inventory?

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Have you noticed that homes are in short supply even though we are in the midst of a pandemic? 

JVM Lending published a great blog on the single-family home shortage last week. In the article he named the following as top reasons for low inventory:

  1. Sellers are reluctant to list during the pandemic,
  2. Demand is surging due to low mortgage rates,
  3. New construction in California is woefully lagging,
  4. Shifts in demographics – people are staying in their homes longer.

The Homebuying Gorillas

An additional reason touched on in the article for low inventory is the addition of Wall St. Money to the home purchase market place. Just this week, the largest home owner in America announced that they had raised another $1 Billion (with a B) to buy homes in suburban neighborhoods.

America’s Largest Landlord Adds $1 Billion for Its House Hunt WSJ.com

GlobeSt.com is forecasting that demand for single-family rental market will continue to grow. 

What is the Local Impact?

Doing an address search for the mailing address of Invitation Homes provided approximately 350 homes owned by the company in Contra Costa County.

Tricon American Homes, the second largest home rental company, appears to own over 230 homes in Contra Costa County.

Combined this is nearly 600 homes that we should not expect to sell anytime in the near future as the investment model of these two companies is for long-term cash flow. 

Bottom Line

What’s the conclusion we can draw from this? Housing inventory remains extremely low despite high demand and low interest rates.

Sellers can expect a properly price property to sell quickly.

Buyers should realize that the market is competitive and they should write a very strong offer.

If you are thinking of selling, now is a great time to capture equity and position yourself in cash for the next purchase. I would love to discuss this option with you.

Peter Maclennan
Real Estate Broker
925-385-8798
DRE #01801793

Historic Low Rates… Bad for Homebuyers?

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I enjoy reading smart people and Jay Voorhees at JVM Lending is a smart guy. He writes this:

… Here is my point: efficient markets theory applies to housing too, which means that subsidies in any form will usually drive up the price of housing.

And very low rates fostered by the gov’t policy are a subsidy of sorts, and they will push up the price of housing – again.

In the short run, lower rates are definitely a gift for most borrowers, but over the long run, housing prices usually adjust to reflect the impact of lower rates.

We are seeing a huge surge in demand for housing now, driven by pent up demand from buyers who were on the sidelines b/c of COVID-19 and by demographics overall.

But another reason demand is so strong is low rates, and we are already seeing the results.

July Bidding Wars Jumped 5x From 2019, according to this article from National Mortgage News.

Why Low Rates Are BAD For Homebuyers

Bottom Line

Demand for housing is strong in the East Bay. Some clients are moving out of denser areas and moving to our area for outdoor space, a bigger house, and for better schooling options in a Covid-impacted world.

For Buyers

If you are thinking of buying a home, be prepared to write a strong offer and to face competition. Make sure you have your financing lined up and that you are working with an experienced real estate agent.

For Sellers

With high demand and low rates, buyers are competing for well priced homes. It is a great time to sell your Dana Estates home!

Peter Maclennan
Broker
DRE#: 01801793
925-385-8798

A Great Time to Buy or Refinance???!!! – Dana Estates Real Estate

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According to the article today on January 30, 2020 Mortgage Rates Basically at Best Levels Since 2016:

For top tier scenarios, the average lender is now offering rates not seen since 2016, with the slight exception of a few hours during the beginning of September 2019….  In other words, today is tied for the lowest levels in more than 3 years.

Matthew Graham

Time to Buy or Refinance

The graphic below indicates how purchasing power decreases as rates increase.

Graphic depicting the decreasing purchasing power as interest rates rise.

The inverse of the graphic is also true. As mortgage rates decrease, buyers can afford a higher priced home. Current owners can lower their payments.

This could be an opportunity to move up in home or to lock in a low rate mortgage. If you are interested in seeing how you could benefit, give me a call at 925-385-8798.

Your 2019 Guide to Buying a Home in Concord, CA

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Realtor.com recently published an article detailing the savings needed to buy a home in the 11 largest metropolitan areas in America. Cities like New York, Los Angeles, Dallas, Philadelphia, and San Francisco made the list.

The author’s then tabulated the average down payment for that metropolitan area. Then they broke down the down payment into a daily savings goal over both a 5-year and a 10-year period.

Not entirely surprisingly, San Francisco’s median home price was the highest at $954,000. The average down payment was $171,836.

A San Francisco home buyer would need to save approximately $94 per day to save up this amount in 5 years or $47 per day to save up in 10 years. Converting this to Starbucks lattes resulted in cutting out 26 lattes per day to save up enough for a down payment in a 5 year period.

Buying a Home in Dana Estates

dana estates concord ca map
Roughly the map of Dana Estates in Concord, CA.

Let’s do an analysis for single-family detached homes in the Dana Estates neighborhood in Concord.

In the past 6 months about 22 single family homes in the Dana Estates neighborhood have sold as of 8/19/2019. That isn’t counting homes currently on the market or in pending status.

The median listing price for homes was $622,000, with a median sale price of $634,000. Using 15% as an assumed down payment, a buyer would need to save $95,100.

Five Year Savings Plan

To save $95,100 for a down payment in Dana Estates in five years would require saving $52.08 per day. Simply cutting out 14 Grande Lattes per day at Starbucks.

Ten Year Savings Plan

To save the $95,100 in 10 years would require, a more manageable, $26.04 per day. Thus only cutting 7 Grande Lattes out of your diet. (Note: Your waist and your heart will thank you for this sacrifice.)

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Buying a Home in Concord, CA

If we include condos, townhouses, duets, and other single-family homes to our analysis, what will a home buyer have to save in Concord, CA?

In the six months prior to August 19, 2019 there were 940 sales of single-family homes in Concord. The median sales price was $595,000. Assuming a 15% down payment, allows for a down payment of $89,250.

Concord Five Year Savings Plan

To save $89,250 for a down payment in Concord would require a daily savings goal of $48.80 for five years. On our Grande Latte scale that equates to 13.4 lattes per day removed from your diet.

Concord Ten Year Savings Plan

Over ten years the daily savings goal is decreased to $24.44 per day. The coffee habit would need to decrease by almost 6.7 lattes per day.

How to Save for a Down Payment?

While cutting out 14 lattes per day may not be possible, there are some unique loan programs that allow a buyer to purchase a home with a down payment of only 3.5% of the purchase price (FHA). A down payment of 3.5% equals $21,770 on the average Dana Estates home.

Peter Maclennan will gladly connect you with one of his recommended lenders to understand payment options and getting a mortgage.

Having a knowledgeable and experienced real estate broker on your side helps protect your interests and ensure you make the best possible decisions. We are dedicated to keeping on top of the real estate market and keeping you informed of changes. You can rest easily knowing you made a well-informed decision based on experience and insight into the Concord California market.

What Are the Benefits and Costs of Owning vs. Renting?

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The age-old question that continues to plague homeowners and tenants alike: Is it better to rent or own? Current homeowners say own, but many disagree. A recent Lending Tree survey showed that 67% of current homeowners prefer owning to renting. Fifteen percent of homeowners believe their renting days were easier, while 18% are neutral.

So why aren’t all homeowners happy with owning? Several arguments dominate, but each side has its pros and cons.

Owning

Owning real estate–whether for living, working, or leasing–is an investment. And just like any investment, property ownership can be both difficult and incredibly rewarding.

Pros

The Aramco Group lenders make a few great points about the benefits of owning over renting. Some of the major points are as follows:

  • Equity building – as you pay off your principal, you are building a long-term financial investment that you will have if and when you ever want to sell
  • Fixed-rate payments – most mortgages are on fixed interest rates, meaning your payments will not increase year-to-year
  • Control – you have the power to modify and improve your property to suit your needs and the needs of your family
  • Stability – not only does building equity provide you with financial stability, but a house ties you to a specific location, where you can experience the long-term comfort of a neighborhood community

Cons

Owning a home comes with cautions, as the InCharge debt experts list alongside the pros:

  • Maintenance – you are responsible for the upkeep of your home, including routine maintenance and unexpected repairs
  • Cost – between mortgage payments, property taxes, HOA and emergency expenses, the costs can really pile up; most importantly, you must be able to afford a down payment
  • Long-term commitment – once you’re tied to your community–not to mention your mortgage–it can be extremely difficult to suddenly pick up and leave

Renting

For some people, renting is their only option. For others, renting may be more appealing than buying even when they have the means to buy.

Pros

The Fiscal Fizzle finance blog provides some great pointers on the benefits of renting over buying:

  • Flexibility – rental contracts usually come with a 12-month lease, but some are on a month-to-month basis, which gives you maximum flexibility to relocate as soon as you want
  • Cost – renting a home usually means cheaper monthly payments, in addition to having maintenance expenses covered by the landlord
  • Less risk – because renting is not an investment, there is nothing to lose if the market dips or the property depreciates

Cons

InCharge.org highlights key areas in which renting loses out to buying:

  • No equity – the major problem with renting is that you will have no equity to show for it, no matter how long you rent
  • Little control – you are at the mercy of increasing rental rates, contractual restrictions, and your landlord’s plans for the building
  • No tax incentives – unlike mortgages, the IRS does not provide tax exemptions for rental payments

Whichever side of the issue you find yourself on, just remember these few things about home ownership:

  • Not everyone is suited for home ownership
  • Home ownership requires a stable income and smart financing
  • Like any investment, home ownership can return long-term financial gain

Having a knowledgeable and experienced real estate broker on your side helps protect your interests and ensure you make the best possible decisions. We are dedicated to keeping on top of the real estate market and keeping you informed of changes. You can rest easily knowing you made a well-informed decision based on experience and insight into the Concord California market.

What NOT to Do When Buying a House

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Purchasing a home is one of the largest financial decisions that a family can make. Because of the size of the transaction, there are many complicated decisions that surround the purchase of a home, and many myths that inexperienced buyers may be prone to believe. Here are a few common myths and the truth behind them, according to Realtor.com

outdated homebuyer advice

1. Wait until spring

A thorough market analysis shows that the spring and summer seasons are the busiest in volume of house sales. For this reason, many buyers believe they must wait until spring or summer to look for a house so they will have a better chance of finding the best home at the best price.

The reality is that while there are more homes on the market in the spring and summer, there is also more competition for the homes. In other words, the busy season means more sellers AND buyers. Holding fast to the “wait until spring” rule may lead buyers to pass up a perfect fit in the winter or fall months.

Instead, buy when you find the right property that will meet your needs for today — and the next five to 10 years.”

Realtor.com

2. Wait for market prices to drop

Buyers may want to wait for the market to dip before they buy and continue to rent until the market changes. But the truth is that while home prices are high, rent is likely to be high as well, and nothing is saved by waiting to start building equity in a home.

Even when the market dips, buying a home is an incredibly large purchase and buyers must be certain they can afford a down payment, property taxes, and monthly mortgage payments. Rather than waiting for market prices to drop while paying monthly rent, buyers should wait until they find the right house at a price they can afford and then BUY IT.

3. Make a low offer so you have room to negotiate

This one makes sense in most situations. Offer lower than you’re willing to pay so when the seller makes a counter-offer, you’re still within budget.

But when it comes to buying a home, this can be a risky strategy, especially if you like the house. Not only does the seller have other offers from competing (and motivated) buyers, but they may want to close quickly and will not humor an unnecessary counter-offer. Instead, research houses in the area and base your offer on similar homes in the area.

It is important to know the local market in the area you wish to buy. How much are comparable homes selling for? How long do homes usually stay on the market? Be sure to find a real estate professional who can help you answer these and other questions.

2018-2019 Dana Estates Housing Market Report

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This year has been off to a great start, with lots of activity in and around Concord. Most notably, progress has been made with regards to the Naval Weapons Station. Master developer Lennar will be implementing a city park and youth recreation complex at the site, in addition to retail space and single-family residencies. You can read more about the Specific Plan from the Concord City website.

In the real estate market, the last 16 months have been active as well. Last year we saw 56 Dana Estates homes sold, with a median sale price of $615,000. Homes are selling over list price, with the average home selling at +0.77% over list price.

Smaller homes are selling just as well as larger homes. Two- and three-bedroom homes are selling at +0.90% over list price, compared to four-bedroom homes at +0.55%.

In the Dana Estates neighborhood, the 2018 median sale price for 2-3 BR homes was $589,950 and the median sale price for 4 BR homes was $650,000.

As shown by the chart below, December had the highest number of homes sold in Dana Estates, though the average sale price remained relatively consistent year-round.

Homes sold quickly in 2018, with the median days on market (DOM) at 14; that means most homes are in contract just two weeks from the day they are listed.

This year shows a more impressive number of homes sold, with 21 sold in the first four months. The median sale price is down on all homes, but properties continue to sell at nearly 1% over list price. The DOM is down to a median eight (8) days.

As you have seen, property in Dana Estates continues to be in demand, and it remains a seller’s market as there is more competition to buy houses than to sell.

Having a knowledgeable and experienced real estate broker on your side helps protect your interests and ensure you make the best possible decisions. We are dedicated to keeping on top of the real estate market and keeping you informed of changes. You can rest easily knowing you made a well-informed decision based on experience and insight into the Concord California market.

To reach Peter Maclennan please call 925.385.8798 or email at peter@maclennaninvestments.com.

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